In 2024, the Population Strategy Council, a group of private experts, analyzed the sustainability of the region and announced the results. This is the second time that a private organization has estimated the possibility of local governments disappearing since 2014. The Population Strategy Council’s report has highlighted the current situation in which local governments continue to face the risk of disappearance. 77% of all municipalities in the Tohoku region are at risk of disappearing, making it the region with the highest percentage by region. This definition of a municipality at risk of disappearing is one in which the number of women aged 20 to 39, the main generation that will give birth to children, will be “less than half” by 2050. In a sense, it is a municipality that the number of children is not increasing.
After the 2014 estimate was released, the government began working on regional revitalization, aiming to correct the concentration of population in Tokyo. Some municipalities have seen their situation improve thanks to large government subsidies and local government initiatives. In Tokyo’s Toshima Ward, the number of young women has increased by 6% since 10 years ago, and the ward has escaped from the current risk of disappearance. There is something about Toshima Ward’s efforts that cannot be overlooked. Toshima Ward has increased the number of private nurseries by more than five times in the eight years leading up to fiscal 2023. They have created conditions that make it easy for young mothers to live and work. It is necessary to create a system that supports child-rearing in dual-income households in the community and reduce the economic burden of child-rearing and education. Toshima Ward may be an area that has achieved this. Increasing the birth rate requires strengthening efforts that correspond to the actual conditions of each region, both in rural and urban areas. In the current situation, the most urgent measure is to promote men’s parental leave to reduce the burden on women.
A hint for making it easier for women to work can be found in the changes in local assemblies. The town with the highest ratio of female councilors in Japan is Oiso Town in Kanagawa Prefecture. In 2003, the ratio of female councilors in this town reached 50%. The increase in female councilors has changed the assembly. They have begun to take the lead in policy decision-making. Female assembly members have the management skills to combine family and social work. If an assembly group is made up of men and elderly people, policies that prioritize the interests of men and the elderly are more likely to pass. As the number of female assembly members increases, policies that directly affect residents, such as town revitalization, are being proposed. As a result of the increase in female assembly members, the local area has seen the creation of environments in which it is easy for women to work, such as nursery schools. Areas that it is easy for women to work will become areas that more children are born.
