Something unusual is happening in the US labor market. What happens in the US often eventually catches up with Japan. The overall unemployment rate in the US remains low, in the low 4% range. Notably, the unemployment rate for young people (ages 16-24) alone has risen to over 10%. What’s even more noteworthy is the rising unemployment rate for college graduates. When the economy worsens, the unemployment rates for both high school and college graduates typically rise. However, while high school graduates are doing well, the unemployment rate for college graduates alone is increasing. The current phenomenon of rising youth unemployment while having little impact on other generations is rare in the past. Part of this impact appears to be the spread of AI.
Will AI take over jobs? Various predictions have been made about this question. GPT-4 has surpassed the pass mark for the four major US accounting certification exams, including the Certified Public Accountant exam. Given this trend, some US companies are estimating that 25% of white-collar jobs, particularly those in clerical and legal affairs, could be automated. A US study published in August revealed that AI is actually causing job losses. The decline in jobs for younger employees began around the time companies began fully implementing generative AI. The majority of the decline in younger employees was due to reduced hiring, not resignations or dismissals. Since generative AI began to become widespread, the number of jobs for people in their 20s has declined exponentially. This decline in jobs for people in their 20s has been observed not only in programming but also in a wide range of occupations, including customer service, sales, and marketing. Meanwhile, even within the same companies, AI has not had any impact on people in their 40s or older.
Predictions that AI will replace half of the US white-collar workforce are becoming a reality. Engineers who cannot perform tasks that AI cannot perform are called “essential workers.” Young people are being called essential workers. A Texas vocational school president said, “Enrollment increased by 20% in the past year.” This vocational school offers courses in training auto mechanics, welders, plumbers, HVAC technicians, and more. There seems to be a steady stream of companies eager to hire vocational school graduates. When new technology is developed, the economy grows. And there is a time lag before new jobs are created along with that growth. Some people see the popularity and high incomes of blue-collar workers as part of that process. Others believe that “chaos” will likely occur until new jobs are created through AI. It seems that a question has arisen: is it really okay to choose the path we should take based solely on the current situation?
