Even those who were optimistic about the coexistence of humans and AI have been surprised by the recent progress of AI. Unlike the 19th century industrial revolution, today’s progress in AI is extending not only to simple labor but also to intellectual labor. In 2020, 29% of the world’s labor has already been replaced by AI and robots, and by 2025, 52% of the world’s labor will be mechanized. This situation was predicted 12 years ago by Professor Michael Osborne of Oxford University in the UK. In reality, American society seems to be developing in line with Professor Osborne’s prediction. On the other hand, a 2013 paper predicted that jobs such as doctors, nurses, and hairdressers were unlikely to be automated.
Even now, it is known that AI and robots lack social intelligence such as “dexterity,” “creativity,” and “communication skills.” Twelve years ago, it was predicted that self-driving taxis would become widespread, but they have not progressed as much as expected. We predicted that many tasks could be automated on construction sites, but the cost barrier has prevented this. Robots that can automate tasks are still very expensive at the moment. Twelve years ago, the predictions were made without considering the cost of introducing the technology. Due to the cost barrier, it is possible that it will not significantly threaten the labor market for the next 10 years. Even if machine learning and robotics technology further develop, there seem to be low-cost “jobs that only humans can do” that are difficult to replace.
The most important factors for a lawyer are high skills and trust. Lawyers who have earned this trust can earn high salaries. Lawyers (workers) with these advanced skills can live in a safe environment. However, lawyers up to the mid-level of lawyers may be overtaken by jobs using AI. So how should mid-level lawyers face the competition with AI? The hint is in chess. It is a famous story that in 1977, the AI ”Deep Blue” defeated the world champion Kasbarov in a chess game. After being defeated by Deep Blue, Kasbarov developed “Advanced Chess.” Advanced Chess is a game in which humans and AI play in pairs. As of 2019, it has been proven that teams of humans and AI are stronger in Advanced Chess than AI alone. In other words, the hypothesis is that the use of AI produces better results when used in collaboration with humans. If this hypothesis can be made practical, it may open the door to mid-level lawyers as well.
