New weapons go through a three-stage process—introduction, superiority, and countermeasure—before reaching a “limit” on their effectiveness. For example, in the case of drones, in the first stage, they are so novel that their usage is unknown and deployment numbers are extremely low. In the second stage, deployment numbers increase and they begin to be used. During this second stage, the drone’s new capabilities demonstrate their superiority. In the third stage, opponents also conduct research to weaken the drone’s functions and tactics, and it eventually becomes a “normal weapon.” Drones are said to be one of the weapons that will “change history.” This is because they can be manufactured at low cost from existing parts. It is clear that the combination of civilian parts and improved software technology has dramatically improved their performance.
On June 1, 2025, the Ukrainian military launched a large-scale drone attack on a Russian air base. A total of 117 drones were deployed in this operation, dubbed “Spider’s Web.” Operation “Spider Web” simultaneously attacked four military airfields in Russia. The total cost of manufacturing the 117 aircraft was only about 200 million yen, while the damage to Russia is estimated at 1 trillion yen, 5,000 times that amount. One-third of Russia’s strategic bombers were lost in this operation. The large-scale drone attack on a Russian air base has shocked security officials around the world. The reality is that most military facilities around the world are vulnerable to similar drone attacks. It also serves as a reminder that attacks on not only military facilities but also nuclear power plants, data centers, and other similar facilities are easy targets.
While other countries have made progress in the use of drones since the 1990s, Japan has lagged behind in adopting them. The Self-Defense Forces have planned to introduce approximately 300 suicide attack aircraft, in which infantrymen can ram enemy vehicles and other targets. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has also launched a study group to strengthen the drone industry’s infrastructure. This is intended to increase the supply capacity of equipment and related parts in anticipation of the expansion of drone operations. In the Ukrainian military, front-line troops order drones online, and a system has been established in which the drones are delivered within a few days to a week. Because they are inexpensive and can be procured quickly, a system has been established in which they can be dropped in large numbers on the battlefield. A situation has arisen in which multifunctional, expensive equipment is being surpassed by a large number of inexpensive unmanned equipment. It seems that Japan, too, will be required to take measures to keep up with this trend.
