Crime in Japan is on the decline. In 2023, the number of reported criminal offenses is expected to reach 700,000, with 270,000 arrests. Theft accounts for 46.7% of all arrests. Incidentally, the number of cases was 920,000 in 2017 and 820,000 in 2018. The number has been declining since peaking at 2.85 million in 2002. It’s human nature to think that crime should be reduced even further, even as it decreases. So, I thought about mechanisms for reducing crime. The most common crime among prison inmates is theft. Drug addiction, such as stimulants, is the second most common, and fraud is the third. A while ago, I was talking to a car-loving acquaintance, and he said, “My car is the most stolen model.” That made a lasting impression on me. While reading the newspaper, I came across an article about the increasing number of “CAN Invader” thefts. CAN Invaders are palm-sized devices shaped like a mobile battery. According to investigators, they are easy to operate and can steal cars in minutes without damaging them. Several overseas websites selling these devices have been identified, apparently based in Russia and Bulgaria. Stolen cars are transported to “yards” near the capital, where they are refurbished and smuggled to countries like Thailand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
In Japan, despite its declining population, crime has also declined dramatically. However, people still turn to crime. For example, thieves, who account for the largest proportion of incarcerated prisoners, commit crimes with strategy and tactics. Thieves first choose a location or area. They strategically select an area or location. Based on their strategy, thieves tactically target specific people, specific houses, and specific cars. For example, if it takes more than five minutes to break into a home, 70% of thieves will give up. If it takes more than 10 minutes, 90% of thieves will give up. They avoid spending every minute watching their theft. How should we deal with such highly skilled thieves?
Epidemiology offers clues. While it’s impossible to eliminate them, it’s possible to reduce them. This is evident from the fact that crime has declined since the end of World War II. Epidemiology offers clues to reducing thieves, even if they can’t be eliminated. For example, for an infection to occur, three factors must be present: a pathogen, a route of infection, and a host. Eliminating even one of these can prevent infectious diseases. Pathogens are bacteria and viruses that cause infectious diseases. Eliminating them prevents illness. Furthermore, weakening bacteria and viruses can limit symptoms to milder conditions. Routes of infection are the routes by which pathogens cause new infections. This can be prevented to some extent by wearing masks and washing your hands. Another way to prevent infection is to avoid places where infection is likely. Hosts are people or animals that pathogens multiply. This means that if people have a strong immune system, they will not get sick.
If we consider “pathogen” to be “thieves,” “transmission route” to be “poor public safety,” and “host” to be those vulnerable to theft, we can see the potential for crime prevention. The best thing would be to eliminate thieves. However, history has proven that this is difficult. It’s generally known, as a rule of thumb, that thefts decrease when people’s lives improve. Second, it’s been shown that crime generally decreases when public safety improves. In cities like New York, removing graffiti has been shown to reduce crime. To combat the “host” problem, the basic approach to crime prevention is to install security windows and doors that make it take more than five minutes to break into a home. Double locks increase the time it takes to unlock a door. Criminals dislike this extra time. They avoid the added time of being seen stealing. They tend to avoid committing crimes in places where there are security cameras or where people can see them. Remembering Sun Tzu’s words, “Know your enemy and know yourself, and you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles,” it seems necessary to understand thieves’ tactics and have the wisdom to prepare for them.
