Predictions that AI will replace half of the white-collar workforce in the United States are becoming a reality. Skilled workers whose roles cannot be performed by AI are referred to as “essential workers,” and there is currently a growing demand for young people to take on such roles in the U.S. Enrollment in vocational training schools is rising as individuals seek to acquire these essential skills; the president of a Texas vocational school reported a 20% increase in enrollment over the past year. These schools offer training programs for professions such as automotive mechanics, welders, plumbers, and HVAC technicians. Even with tuition and room and board included, the annual cost is around $9,000—roughly one-tenth the cost of a four-year private university in the U.S. A contrast has emerged between essential workers, who face no difficulty finding employment, and university graduates with white-collar skills who struggle to secure jobs.
Japan is facing a severe labor shortage across both white-collar and blue-collar sectors, with the situation being particularly acute in blue-collar roles. According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, the number of skilled construction workers fell to 3.03 million in 2024, a 12% decline over the past decade. In March, the ratio of job openings to applicants stood at 7.35 for construction workers (such as scaffolders and rebar workers), 5.96 for civil engineering workers, and 2.51 for drivers. Given that the overall average ratio is 1.10, the high demand for blue-collar talent is evident. Labor shortages in this sector are expected to worsen due to the aging population and demographic decline. It appears that AI and physical robots (such as drones) may offer a ray of hope, brightening the otherwise gloomy labor market of developed nations. General construction companies also handle slope stabilization work as part of road construction projects. A shortage of workers specializing in this type of slope work has become a pressing issue, and the adoption of drones is being pursued as a solution.
The rise of AI is contributing to increased unemployment among young people in the United States. In response, a growing number of young people are entering blue-collar fields; roles such as plumbers and elevator technicians offer the potential for high wages. However, some argue that it is unrealistic to expect blue-collar wages to keep rising indefinitely while white-collar workers are losing their jobs. After all, high blue-collar incomes often rely on generous customers who provide substantial tips. If young people flock to these high-paying blue-collar jobs, it is only natural to expect wages to eventually decline. While the emergence of new technologies drives economic growth, there is a time lag before that growth translates into new employment opportunities; some view the current high blue-collar earnings as merely a phase within that transitional period. This has raised a fundamental question: Is it wise to choose one’s career path based solely on the current situation?
