In 1974, the Council on Population Problems—an advisory body to the Ministry of Health and Welfare—announced in its “White Paper on Population” that Japan’s population would peak in 2010. As predicted, the population did indeed peak that year. Fifteen years later, the 2025 national census recorded Japan’s total population at 123 million—a decrease of 3.1 million (2.5%) over the preceding five years. This drop of 3.1 million marked the largest decline on record. The situation has unfolded exactly as the 1974 white paper anticipated. Forward-thinking local governments are now implementing measures that take population decline as a given, such as the “smart downsizing” of infrastructure and administrative services. This article explores regional development and the pursuit of prosperity within the context of a shrinking population.
One example is the revitalization of Worbis, a city in the former East Germany that experienced significant population outflow following German reunification in 1990. During the East German era, the city had grown to a peak of approximately 17,000 residents, driven by facilities such as cotton spinning mills. However, unable to compete with the industrial might of West Germany, the population plummeted to just a few thousand after reunification. Despite this exodus, Worbis achieved a comeback through “sound downsizing.” The town regained its vibrancy and, in 2007, won an international award for residential architecture; the mayor attributed this success to a focus on “improving the quality of life.” Another example is Busan, South Korea’s second-largest city. Busan’s population peaked at 3.8 million in the 1990s and has since fallen to 3.3 million. The city’s population policy team is advancing urban planning based on the premise of a shrinking population. A key initiative in this effort is the “15-Minute City Busan” project, which divides the city into approximately 60 zones, ensuring that essential daily services and facilities are accessible within a 15-minute walk or short trip. Core hubs will be established to consolidate functions for specific services, such as child-rearing support and assistance for the elderly.
There are towns in Japan that have successfully revitalized themselves by repurposing local tangible and intangible assets, creating environments that are attractive places to live and relocate to. The Marugame Shopping District in Takamatsu City, Kagawa Prefecture, is one such example. The Marugame area has become an excellent place for the elderly to live. Seniors do not need large homes; a one-bedroom apartment (1LDK) is sufficient. With medical clinics located on the ground floors of the district’s apartment buildings, residents need not worry about traveling to see a doctor. Areas that offer robust medical services and integrate residential living with commercial facilities are highly livable for the elderly. Sales in the Marugame shopping district have more than tripled compared to pre-development levels, and the number of shoppers has increased by over 50 percent. The assessed value of buildings for fixed asset tax purposes has risen from 4 million yen to 36 million yen, resulting in a significant boost to tax revenue. This increase in tax revenue contributes to a larger municipal budget. It is certain that Japan’s total population will fall to the 110-million range by the 2030 national census. When considering the future of local communities against the backdrop of a shrinking population, the logical conclusion is a strategy of “selection and concentration.” For municipalities, focusing on improving the quality of life rather than simply pursuing numerical growth appears to offer a promising approach to redevelopment.
