In prediction markets, participants wager their own money, leading them to trade tickets seriously. These markets are known to offer higher predictive accuracy than public opinion polls. The issue with polls is that they treat knowledgeable and uninformed respondents equally, and there is no guarantee that participants are answering earnestly. A prominent example of a prediction market is the US-based Polymarket. Like a stock exchange, Polymarket facilitates the trading of various tickets. For instance, a ticket asking, “Will the price of crude oil reach $110 per barrel by the end of June?” might be priced at $0.68. This implies a 68% probability that the price will exceed $110 per barrel by that time. If, at that juncture, President Trump were to announce that an agreement with Iran was imminent—say, within two or three days—the ticket price would fluctuate accordingly.
Reports have emerged regarding the Israeli Air Force’s involvement in prediction markets. Specifically, there were instances that military personnel opened accounts and executed trades—showing suspicious patterns—just before airstrikes against Iran, thereby reaping profits. Similar reports of unusual account openings and trading activity surfaced in the US and elsewhere shortly before the detention of Venezuelan President Maduro. These incidents point to systemic issues within the Israeli and US militaries, creating an environment that insiders can easily participate in such markets. As a side note, “insider trading” refers to the illegal practice that individuals associated with a publicly traded company—such as employees or executives—use non-public, material information (facts significantly influencing investment decisions) obtained through their roles to trade company stock before that information is released to the public. Because it undermines fairness toward general investors and damages the integrity and trustworthiness of securities markets, insider trading is strictly prohibited by the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. Yet, despite these prohibitions, some individuals are still blinded by the prospect of immediate profit.
Polymarket’s betting options include military strikes. Here, we examine the Israeli case in greater detail. Israeli media reports that the insider trading incident originated on June 12, 2025—the day before the “12-Day War.” An Air Force reserve major who was later arrested had been briefed in a closed-door meeting on plans for the Israeli Air Force to strike Iran the following day. Upon learning of the operation, the major informed a civilian accomplice of the scheduled attack time. The accomplice then opened a digital wallet and placed a bet on Polymarket predicting the timing of the initial strike. Armed with accurate information, the pair won the wager, netting $162,663 in profit. The accomplice subsequently transferred half of the winnings to the major in cryptocurrency. In mid-February, Israeli authorities indicted the two men for using classified military information to engage in betting—specifically, betting on Polymarket. Authorities initially imposed a gag order regarding the details of the incident. However, the situation has caused a stir after the defendant revealed during questioning that “the entire squadron was participating in Polymarket, and the whole Air Force was placing bets.”
